Source: Bureau of Meteorology

For people in parts of East Gippsland, West and South Gippsland, Central and South West Forecast Districts.

Issued at 12:40 pm Thursday, 15 January 2026.

INTENSE RAINFALL OCCURRING ABOUT THE OTWAYS, HEAVY RAINFALL DEVELOPING ABOUT GIPPSLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

Weather Situation: Heavy to intense rainfall is likely to impact parts of the Otways, with heavy rainfall about Wilson's Promontory and East Gippsland this afternoon, as an upper level low pressure system generates slow moving showers and thunderstorms over the area. Other areas may also be added to the warning as storms develop.

VERY DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS are likely to produce intense rainfall that may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding over the next several hours in parts of the Central and South West districts about the Otways, inland from Lorne.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding over the next several hours in parts of the East Gippsland, West and South Gippsland, Central and South West districts. Locations which may be affected include Buchan, Apollo Bay, Tidal River, Yarram, Combienbar and Gelantipy.

A separate Severe Weather Warning is current for damaging winds over parts of Victoria, developing later this afternoon and evening. All warnings can be found here: https://www.bom.gov.au/weather-and-climate/warnings-and-alerts

Significant observations to time of warning:

45.6 MM WAS RECORDED AT MT COWLEY IN THE 1 HOUR TO 11:15 AM.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* If driving conditions are dangerous, safely pull over away from trees, drains, low-lying areas and floodwater. Avoid travel if possible.
* Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
* Be aware - heat, fire or recent storms may make trees unstable and more likely to fall when it's windy or wet.
* Check that loose items, such as outdoor settings, umbrellas and trampolines are safely secured. Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Stay indoors and away from windows.
* If outdoors, move to a safe place indoors. Stay away from trees, drains, gutters, creeks and waterways.
* Stay away from fallen powerlines - always assume they are live.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks. Heavy rainfall may also increase the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay informed: Monitor weather warnings, forecasts and river levels at the Bureau of Meteorology website, and warnings through VicEmergency website/app/hotline.