Source: Bureau of Meteorology

For people in East Gippsland and parts of Central, North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland, South West and Northern Country Forecast Districts.

Issued at 4:00 pm Thursday, 15 January 2026.

LOCALLY INTENSE RAINFALL IN SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE EAST, HEAVY RAINFALL ELSEWHERE.

Weather Situation: An upper-level low pressure system is generating slow moving showers and thunderstorms over the Otways, Gippsland coast and eastern ranges. Severe thunderstorms are also continuing to develop in the east with the additional hazards of large hail and damaging winds.

VERY DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORMS are likely to produce heavy, locally intense rainfall that may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding, large hailstones and damaging winds over the next several hours in the East Gippsland and parts of the North Central, North East, West and South Gippsland and Central districts. Locations which may be affected include Orbost, Falls Creek, Mansfield, Dargo, Buchan, Mt Baw Baw, Maffra, Mallacoota and Mt Hotham.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce heavy rainfall that may lead to flash flooding over the next several hours in parts of the Central, South West, Northern Country, North Central and West and South Gippsland districts. Locations which may be affected include Bendigo and Lorne.

Significant rainfall observations:

53.4 MM AT MT CANN FIRE TOWER IN THE 30 MINUTES TO 3:57 PM.

59.8 MM AT LICOLA IN THE 1 HOUR TO 3:37 PM.

175.4 MM AT MT COWLEY IN THE 6 HOURS TO 3:00 PM.

52.4 MM AT BENWERRIN IN THE 1 HOUR TO 2:00 PM.

23.6 mm at Aireys Inlet in the 1 hour to 2:20 pm.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* If driving conditions are dangerous, safely pull over away from trees, drains, low-lying areas and floodwater. Avoid travel if possible.
* Stay safe by avoiding dangerous hazards, such as floodwater, mud, debris, damaged roads and fallen trees.
* Be aware - heat, fire or recent storms may make trees unstable and more likely to fall when it's windy or wet.
* Check that loose items, such as outdoor settings, umbrellas and trampolines are safely secured. Move vehicles under cover or away from trees.
* Stay indoors and away from windows.
* If outdoors, move to a safe place indoors. Stay away from trees, drains, gutters, creeks and waterways.
* Stay away from fallen powerlines - always assume they are live.
* Be aware that in fire affected areas, rainfall run-off into waterways may contain debris such as ash, soil, trees and rocks. Heavy rainfall may also increase the potential for landslides and debris across roads.
* Stay informed: Monitor weather warnings, forecasts and river levels at the Bureau of Meteorology website, and warnings through VicEmergency website/app/hotline.